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  • Drop rates for guild vault

    My guild is experiencing low drop rates for good cards

    Is this what everyone is experiencing? Or is the drop rates still working as intended?

  • #2
    Originally posted by mayojojo View Post
    My guild is experiencing low drop rates for good cards

    Is this what everyone is experiencing? Or is the drop rates still working as intended?
    It seems that way for us as well. I am unsure if it is true or not. Black Falcon X may have already run the numbers to better understand the odds. I think they start out the same, but some casual guilds will have many less pulls or % of pulls. Since the Guild Vault is based on 30 members, if you don't have 30 in the guild or only 10-15 pull (as in my guild), then I think there may be some difficulty getting the Gold level pulls.

    I haven't run the numbers, and probably won't take the time to do it. So the above is my musing, not factual. If my musing are consistent with the math, then I would suggest they keep the tradeable mechanic and simply apply it to the individual vaults. As I have stated elsewhere, I am still bullish on this development. That said there are a number of potential pitfalls that make it challenging to implement fairly and in a fun way. I am still of the opinion this could be great fun, but it may take some iteration to smooth out the mechanic.

    Comment


    • Black Falcon X
      Black Falcon X commented
      Editing a comment
      I have not done a detailed analysis. However, it’s provable that guild vault reduces average player variance by 1 / sqrt(30) assuming all 30 players pulls the same # of non-guaranteed cards. For a guild with 1 big spender and a bunch of small spenders, the variance experienced by the big spender will increase due to the size of the vault.

      Apologize for the lack of numbers. Been busy at work.

    • Silverwolf
      Silverwolf commented
      Editing a comment
      Thanks Black Falcon X , Please don't apologize. I am just being lazy. I appreciate your comments helping to clarify what the changes to the vault mean in practical terms. Between you and MTM, I think there is now good factual data describing the changes. I agree with MTM when he states the this change isn't "straight out better or worse."

  • #3
    A fresh Guild Vault is just 30 Solo Vaults in one. So it is like dumping 30 sets of Scrabble tiles together, there are the same number of T's and the same number of Q's but it is a much larger bag.

    Probability will swing around a little bit, but if neither you nor your guild tends to go deep into the vault the effects will be pretty minimal. The biggest effect will be felt by those that normally draw tons of cards or even empty the Vault while their guilds do not. The effect of emptying the pool was important for smoothing out their odds, and at 30x the size each T you draw is only making the Q's more likely at only 1/30th the rate. The price cap removing the chance for ultra bad luck is also gone, I'm not sure any Whale can go Leviathan to the point of emptying an entire Guild Vault (except for guarantees) themself!

    This may even out, because of trading so everyone gets the right distribution, but it is more than a bit of a headache when you have huge differences in spending.
    Legendary Database: Bitly.com/LegendaryDatabase
    Heavenly Spire: Bitly.com/HeavenlySpire
    Drop Table: Bitly.com/DustPool

    Comment


    • legend123
      legend123 commented
      Editing a comment
      theoretically the ratio of 2 oranges to 2 apples is the same as 10 oranges to 10 apples which is 1:1. but practically in 1rst case if you draw 1 orange the probability of getting an apple if 2:1 which is 67% chance while is second case if you pull 1 orange the probability of getting an apple is 10:9 which is 53% chance. SO PRACTICALY THE GUILD VAULT IS WORSE THAN THE SOLO VAULT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • MTM
      MTM commented
      Editing a comment
      Right, that is the point I was making. Super super simplifying, say the Vault is 30 good and 270 bad (300 total). You have a 10% chance to draw something good, you don't, and now have 30 good and 269 bad (299 total), for a 10.03% chance of drawing something good next time. An extra 0.03% chance really isn't going to be meaningful or perceptible during normal use, so if you are only buying 3 or 4 tiers it doesn't much matter overall. The problem is for those that would draw, say, 100 cards. Then they'd be up to a 15% chance, whereas in the guild vault they are only up to 10.1%. It swings around and there are more factors (particularly your guildmates), but you get the idea.

      The fact I can trade my orange for your apple, or give you an apple I don't need out of the goodness of my heart, means there are advantages too. But it is not straight better or worse.

  • #4
    Im confused but looks like its not much difference

    Comment


    • #5
      I think the idea is for 99% of people it will be no difference. For really big spenders, it reduces their ability to buy out the entire vault for $2kish.

      Comment


      • #6
        i will try another example:

        assume the solo vault contained 100 items so the guild vault contains 3000 items

        assuming you are on budget and only buy 10 items, this is 10% of the vault = 10% good luck chance in solo vault
        while in guild vault if you buy the same 10 items, this is 0.3% of the guild vault = 0.3% good luck chance (at least theoretically)

        so in light spending guilds where maybe 10 members buy 10 items each, this equals 3% good luck for the 10 members which can be split randomly making 1 member luck much better or probably much worse than the 3%

        while in heavy spending guilds most items will be bought and traded between all members

        so the new guild vault is much worse for light spenders who most the time play within the same guilds and not for heavy spenders who most the time play within the same guilds (at least theoretically)

        yes some will be extra lucky but the norm is the majority will fall in the extra unlucky category where the much worse luck percentage apply

        Comment


        • TotallyNewPlaya
          TotallyNewPlaya commented
          Editing a comment
          This is not how statistics works. Not even theoretically.

          People, I'm not going to say that you should go dump gems or cash into this fault, but don't listen to rubbish pretend math as your reasoning for doing so.
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